Now, I could have this totally wrong.
I’m going on the air around 6:30 p.m. today on AM760 to discuss the district’s dropout rate. On my relatively cursory examination, it appears that the 2009-2010 dropout rate is really much larger than it is. My calculations show a dropout rate of 11.34%, but according to the numbers reported to the Colorado Department of Education, they say it’s 6.18%.
I’m basing my numbers on the internal “membership reports” against the assumed dropout rate the CDE reports. Here are the sets of data:
I just know that there’s something seriously wrong when the CDE says Abraham Lincoln High has 3,093 students, when everyone knows it’s really around 2,000. Same for Kennedy, which CDE says has 1960, but we know it’s been under 1,000 for a few years now. I’m sorry, I just know my schools much better than that.
I really, REALLY want to be wrong here, and I’ve asked the district to respond before airtime. If I’m wrong, I will go back on the air and correct my statements, without hesitation.
Will the district?
Good for you and your due diligence! As much as I hope the numbers speak in favor of JFK, it’s important that we know the facts, unskewed, so the true issues can be addressed.
Before going on the web and the radio and accusing the organization you were elected to govern of wrongdoing you might want to get your facts straight. There is simple explanation for why Lincoln and Kennedy’s enrollment seems so high: CDE defines a school’s “Total Membership” as “all students who were in membership any time during the year.”
See CDE’s FAQ here:
http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/rv2010DropoutLinks.htm
“What is the dropout rate? The Colorado dropout rate is an annual rate, reflecting the percentage of all students enrolled in grades 7-12 who leave school during a single school year without subsequently attending another school or educational program. It is calculated by dividing the number of dropouts by a membership base which includes all students who were in membership any time during the year.”
Thanks for sharing. Here’s the problem. The population numbers actually double-count transfer students. But if you want to really calculate how many kids drop out, you need to unburden student population numbers from the padding of transfer numbers. Right?
I don’t care what the CDE asks for. I’m saying that if we’re going to use a number for a PR press junket, we’d better make sure we’re reporting what people want to know. If we’re going to use the CDE’s number, then we’d better explain the discrepancies.
Respectfully, my constituents elected me to get to the bottom of things and to end the culture of happy talk and tap dancing with no results. I give them what they want. And incidentally, I gave the district the opportunity to unravel this issue before I did publicize, and the response was that I should do my due diligence. But isn’t that what calling them first before going public actually is?
Thanks for your comment either way.